Predicting the Weather, An Age Old Question Considered
The Changing Seasons – Throughout the ages, people have sought not only to derive meaning from seasonal changes but also to explain, interpret, and forecast these events. Predictions of a “bad Winter” or “early Spring” were inferred from biological and environmental indicators and observations such as the first appearance of certain plants, insects, and animals.
Cultural Interpretation – This information was interpreted within the context of the society’s culture and religious belief systems. In many of these cultures, ancient festivals, holidays, and celebrations were attached to these biological and environmental observations and, in time, became a way for these civilizations to estimate and correlate expected climates and seasonal changes with specific dates and celebrations.
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Mark Your Celebration Calendar – But annual celebrations were not the only value in being able to ascertain and predict seasonal changes—these observances helped to mark crucial periods in which to plant and harvest crops and held great significance in informing ancient agricultural practices.
Dancing in the Streets-Saturnalia – The Romans celebrated Saturnalia at the end of the planting season. Saturnalia was a celebration of the god Saturn, the god of seed-sowing, and a celebration of the hope of a successful spring harvest. This one-week celebration coincided with the Winter Solstice. Celebrations lasted one week; businesses were closed and all joined in to “the unrestrained mirth…banqueting, and lavish streams of wine.” Social norms were relaxed during this period with households appointing a “Lord of Misrule” to give silly and embarrassing orders even dance naked in the street and yell insults.
Predicting Floods and Events – In ancient Egypt, the summer solstice corresponded with the rise of the Nile and was a way for Egyptians to predict annual flooding for planting crops. Flooding provided the land with rich silt that fertilized their farmlands. For ancient Greeks, the Summer Solstice kicked off the start of the new year and a one-month countdown to the much-anticipated Olympic games. A festival celebrating Kronia, the god of agriculture, was held during this time as well.
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It’s Persephone’s Fault – Greek mythology tells us the tale of Zeus’ daughter, Persephone, who was abducted by the king of the underworld, Hades. Persephone was forced to be Hades’ queen and live with him in the underworld. She longed to return to the world above, but she had consumed six pomegranate seeds while in Hades, an act that forced her to return to Hades every six months. When Persephone returned to Hades it became Winter and then when she emerged six months later, it became Spring. This helped the ancient agrarians explain the change in seasons.
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The Influence of the Sun – Ancient Chinese observed 24 divisions of the year, each corresponding with the sun’s positions, seasonal phenomena, and associated farming activity. The ancient Northern and Central European pagans marked Midsummer with bonfires in hopes of boosting the sun’s energy to ensure a good harvest for Fall. Neolithic Europeans constructed Stonehenge to track and align with the movement of the sun during summer and winter solstices, marking times to plant and harvest.
Why Do We Have Seasons At All? – According to science, it’s all about the earth’s rotation and tilt. The earth rotates around the sun in an elliptical, or oblong, orbit that requires 365 days to complete; it also spins on a tilted axis with respect to the orbital plane (a place that connects the center of the object being orbited with the center of the orbiting object). This tilted axis affects the amount of light the earth receives from the sun at any given time in its year-long journey.
When the axis points toward the sun, we experience Summer—pointing away, we experience Winter and in between these two extremes lies Fall and Spring. During the Summer Solstice (June 21) the axis points more toward the sun than at any other time of the Earth’s journey around the sun; during the Winter Solstice (December 21) the axis points furthest away. During Fall and Spring equinox (September 23 and March 21 respectively) the earth’s axis is tilted 90 degrees away from the sun.
Illumination of the earth during various seasons. Photo credit: Kaja Ni, Getty Images
Science, Technology, and Walmart – Today, we have a vast array of technological devices and computer models to predict and track the climate and continual access to this information at our fingertips. And arguably, our various holidays are more driven around consumer marketing than an actual way to mark, forecast, and celebrate impending seasons in relation to planting crops.
Alexa As Soothsayer – And the need to be observant of biological and environmental indicators in nature to predict the approaching season or holiday? Well, you can stroll into any Walmart and determine this just by walking down the aisles! This morning, I rolled over in bed and asked, “Alexa, what is today’s weather?” The Alexa orb sitting on my bedside stand, in constant communication with the World Wide Web, quickly obliged and answered with the current temperature, the expected high and low temperatures of the day, along with the chance of rain.
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I also asked her how many days before Christmas, and I received a quick response of “64 days.” I used my remote control to turn on the television and watch the news. From my favorite meteorologist, I received a plethora of information on the weather—both locally and all over the world, as well as the impacts caused by global warming. All of this, even before I could finish my first cup of morning coffee.
Are We Observing and Understanding? – But with all these technological gains, could it be that we stand to lose something even more precious? Given the tools of technology and shifts in the focus on why we celebrate certain holidays and ways in which we predict the seasons, I argue that there is an even greater value in fully experiencing our world and being constantly observant of the changes around us in nature.
We should seek to hone and not lose those ancient skills of our ancestors in “reading the land”; to use technology to enhance and not replace these skills; to get outside regularly and touch the bark of a tree; to “assault our senses” with a walk in the woods; to observe firsthand the sun, stars, plants, and animals. We need to take in the sights, smells, and sounds and call upon our senses in order to fully appreciate and enjoy the miracle in every change of seasons–changes that upon closer inspection reveal clues to a deeper understanding of our environment and of ourselves.
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https://www.discovermagazine.